#41 ウィニング・ラン修正

2026-06-12 02:07:51 +09:00
@@ -78,6 +78,8 @@ type GameSnapshot = {
    rejectedPostIds:         Set<number>
    lastGuessQuestionCount:  number
    lastRejectedGuessId:     number | null
+    winningRunTargetId:      number | null
+    winningRunStartAnswerCount: number | null
    activeGuessId:           number | null
    reviewGuessedPostId:     number | null
    reviewCorrectPostId:     number | null }
@@ -99,6 +101,8 @@ type StoredGekanatorGame = {
    rejectedPostIds:             number[]
    lastGuessQuestionCount:      number
    lastRejectedGuessId:         number | null
+    winningRunTargetId?:         number | null
+    winningRunStartAnswerCount?: number | null
    activeGuessId:               number | null
    reviewGuessedPostId:         number | null
    reviewCorrectPostId:         number | null
@@ -126,6 +130,7 @@ const minQuestionsBeforeCertainGuess = 5
 const certainGuessPercent = 99.5
 const runnerUpMaxPercent = .5
 const hardMaxQuestions = 80
+const winningRunQuestionLimit = 3
 const softenedAnswerWeight = .35
 const confidenceTemperature = 6
 const gameStorageKey = 'gekanator:game:v1'
@@ -191,6 +196,8 @@ const normalizeStoredGame = (game: StoredGekanatorGame): StoredGekanatorGame =>
      normalizeStoredQuestionId (questionId)),
  recoveredCandidatePosts: game.recoveredCandidatePosts ?? [],
  recoveryStepCount: game.recoveryStepCount ?? 0,
+  winningRunTargetId: game.winningRunTargetId ?? null,
+  winningRunStartAnswerCount: game.winningRunStartAnswerCount ?? null,
  askedQuestionBank: game.askedQuestionBank?.map (question =>
      ({
 	  ...question,
@@ -828,6 +835,135 @@ const chooseQuestion = ({
 }


+const directWinningRunExampleAnswerFor = (
+    question:    GekanatorQuestion,
+    targetPost:  Post,
+): GekanatorAnswerValue | null =>
+    question.kind !== 'post_similarity'
+      ? null
+      : question.exampleAnswers?.[String (targetPost.id) as `${ number }`] ?? null
+
+
+const winningRunPriorityFor = (
+    question:    GekanatorQuestion,
+    expected:    GekanatorAnswerValue,
+    targetPost:  Post,
+): number | null => {
+  if (question.kind === 'post_similarity')
+    {
+	const directAnswer = directWinningRunExampleAnswerFor (question, targetPost)
+	if (directAnswer === null)
+	  return null
+	if (expected === 'yes')
+	  return 1
+	if (expected === 'no')
+	  return 3
+	return null
+    }
+
+  if (expected === 'yes')
+    return 0
+  if (expected === 'no')
+    return 2
+
+  return null
+}
+
+
+const chooseWinningRunQuestion = ({
+    posts,
+    fallbackPosts,
+    questions,
+    targetPost,
+    scores,
+    answers,
+    askedIds,
+    gameSeed,
+}: {
+    posts:      Post[]
+    fallbackPosts: Post[]
+    questions:  GekanatorQuestion[]
+    targetPost: Post
+    scores:     Map<number, number>
+    answers:    GekanatorAnswerLog[]
+    askedIds:   Set<string>
+    gameSeed:   string
+}): GekanatorQuestion | null => {
+  const ranked = questions
+      .filter (question => {
+	if (askedIds.has (question.id))
+	  return false
+	if (isQuestionHardFilteredAfterAnswers (question, answers))
+	  return false
+
+	const expected = expectedAnswerForQuestion (question, targetPost)
+	return expected !== null && expected !== 'unknown'
+      })
+      .map (question => {
+	const expected = expectedAnswerForQuestion (question, targetPost)
+	const priority =
+	    expected === null
+	      ? null
+	      : winningRunPriorityFor (question, expected, targetPost)
+	if (priority === null)
+	  return null
+
+	const yesCount = posts.filter (post => question.test (post)).length
+	const matchingCount =
+	    expected === 'yes' || expected === 'partial'
+	      ? yesCount
+	      : posts.length - yesCount
+
+	return {
+	    question,
+	    priority,
+	    matchingCount }
+      })
+      .filter ((item): item is {
+	  question:      GekanatorQuestion
+	  priority:      number
+	  matchingCount: number } => item !== null)
+      .sort ((a, b) => {
+	if (a.priority !== b.priority)
+	  return a.priority - b.priority
+
+	if (a.matchingCount !== b.matchingCount)
+	  return a.matchingCount - b.matchingCount
+
+	if (a.question.priorityWeight !== b.question.priorityWeight)
+	  return b.question.priorityWeight - a.question.priorityWeight
+
+	return a.question.id.localeCompare (b.question.id)
+      })
+
+  if (ranked.length > 0)
+    return ranked[0]?.question ?? null
+
+  return chooseQuestion ({
+      posts: fallbackPosts.length > 0 ? fallbackPosts : posts,
+      questions,
+      scores,
+      answers,
+      askedIds,
+      gameSeed })
+}
+
+
+const isWinningRunActive = (
+    winningRunTargetId:         number | null,
+    winningRunStartAnswerCount: number | null,
+): boolean =>
+    winningRunTargetId !== null && winningRunStartAnswerCount !== null
+
+
+const winningRunQuestionCount = (
+    answers:                    GekanatorAnswerLog[],
+    winningRunStartAnswerCount: number | null,
+): number => winningRunStartAnswerCount === null
+    ? 0
+    : Math.max (0, answers.length - winningRunStartAnswerCount)
+
+
 const bestPost = (posts: Post[], scores: Map<number, number>): Post | null =>
    posts
    .map (post => ({ post, score: scores.get (post.id) ?? 0 }))
@@ -896,6 +1032,10 @@ const GekanatorPage: FC = () => {
      storedGame?.lastGuessQuestionCount ?? 0)
  const [lastRejectedGuessId, setLastRejectedGuessId] = useState<number | null> (
      storedGame?.lastRejectedGuessId ?? null)
+  const [winningRunTargetId, setWinningRunTargetId] = useState<number | null> (
+      storedGame?.winningRunTargetId ?? null)
+  const [winningRunStartAnswerCount, setWinningRunStartAnswerCount] =
+      useState<number | null> (storedGame?.winningRunStartAnswerCount ?? null)
  const [activeGuessId, setActiveGuessId] = useState<number | null> (
      storedGame?.activeGuessId ?? null)
  const [reviewGuessedPostId, setReviewGuessedPostId] = useState<number | null> (
@@ -979,6 +1119,8 @@ const GekanatorPage: FC = () => {
 	rejectedPostIds: [...rejectedPostIds],
 	lastGuessQuestionCount,
 	lastRejectedGuessId,
+	winningRunTargetId,
+	winningRunStartAnswerCount,
 	activeGuessId,
 	reviewGuessedPostId,
 	reviewCorrectPostId,
@@ -1016,6 +1158,8 @@ const GekanatorPage: FC = () => {
      rejectedPostIds,
      lastGuessQuestionCount,
      lastRejectedGuessId,
+      winningRunTargetId,
+      winningRunStartAnswerCount,
      activeGuessId,
      reviewGuessedPostId,
      reviewCorrectPostId,
@@ -1053,6 +1197,20 @@ const GekanatorPage: FC = () => {
  const availablePosts = useMemo (
      () => posts.filter (post => !(rejectedPostIds.has (post.id))),
      [posts, rejectedPostIds])
+  const winningRunTargetPost = useMemo (
+      () => winningRunTargetId === null
+	  ? null
+	  : posts.find (post => post.id === winningRunTargetId) ?? null,
+      [posts, winningRunTargetId])
+  const winningRunQuestionsAsked = winningRunQuestionCount (
+      answers,
+      winningRunStartAnswerCount)
+  const winningRunActive =
+      isWinningRunActive (winningRunTargetId, winningRunStartAnswerCount)
+      && winningRunQuestionsAsked < winningRunQuestionLimit
+      && eligiblePosts.length === 1
+      && eligiblePosts[0]?.id === winningRunTargetId
+      && winningRunTargetPost !== null
  const questionPosts =
      eligiblePosts.length > 1
 	|| questionsSinceLastGuess >= minQuestionsBeforeCertainGuess
@@ -1064,13 +1222,23 @@ const GekanatorPage: FC = () => {
      .sort ((a, b) => b.score - a.score)
      .slice (0, 3),
      [eligiblePosts, scores])
-  const currentQuestion = chooseQuestion ({
-      posts: questionPosts,
-      questions: scoringQuestions,
-      scores,
-      answers,
-      askedIds,
-      gameSeed })
+  const currentQuestion = winningRunActive && winningRunTargetPost
+      ? chooseWinningRunQuestion ({
+	  posts,
+	  fallbackPosts: availablePosts.length > 1 ? availablePosts : posts,
+	  questions: scoringQuestions,
+	  targetPost: winningRunTargetPost,
+	  scores,
+	  answers,
+	  askedIds,
+	  gameSeed })
+      : chooseQuestion ({
+	  posts: questionPosts,
+	  questions: scoringQuestions,
+	  scores,
+	  answers,
+	  askedIds,
+	  gameSeed })
  const answerPreviews = useMemo (
      () => currentQuestion
 	  ? answerOptions.map (option => previewAnswer ({
@@ -1141,6 +1309,8 @@ const GekanatorPage: FC = () => {
    setRejectedPostIds (new Set ())
    setLastGuessQuestionCount (0)
    setLastRejectedGuessId (null)
+    setWinningRunTargetId (null)
+    setWinningRunStartAnswerCount (null)
    setActiveGuessId (null)
    setReviewGuessedPostId (null)
    setReviewCorrectPostId (null)
@@ -1299,6 +1469,8 @@ const GekanatorPage: FC = () => {
 	rejectedPostIds: new Set (rejectedPostIds),
 	lastGuessQuestionCount,
 	lastRejectedGuessId,
+	winningRunTargetId,
+	winningRunStartAnswerCount,
 	activeGuessId,
 	reviewGuessedPostId,
 	reviewCorrectPostId }])
@@ -1324,6 +1496,20 @@ const GekanatorPage: FC = () => {
    const nextRecoveredCandidatePosts = recovered.recoveredCandidatePosts
    const nextScores = recovered.scores
    const nextEligiblePosts = recovered.eligiblePosts
+    const currentWinningRunActive =
+	isWinningRunActive (winningRunTargetId, winningRunStartAnswerCount)
+    const nextWinningRunTargetId =
+	nextEligiblePosts.length === 1
+	  ? nextEligiblePosts[0]?.id ?? null
+	  : null
+    const nextWinningRunStartAnswerCount =
+	nextWinningRunTargetId === null
+	  ? null
+	  : currentWinningRunActive
+	    && winningRunTargetId === nextWinningRunTargetId
+	    && winningRunStartAnswerCount !== null
+	      ? winningRunStartAnswerCount
+	      : nextAnswers.length

    setScores (nextScores)
    setAskedIds (nextAskedIds)
@@ -1332,6 +1518,8 @@ const GekanatorPage: FC = () => {
    setRecoveryStepCount (recovered.recoveryStepCount)
    setAskedQuestionBank (nextAskedQuestionBank)
    setAnswers (nextAnswers)
+    setWinningRunTargetId (nextWinningRunTargetId)
+    setWinningRunStartAnswerCount (nextWinningRunStartAnswerCount)

    const nextGuessablePosts =
 	nextEligiblePosts.length > 0
@@ -1345,6 +1533,13 @@ const GekanatorPage: FC = () => {
    const topConfidence = nextConfidences[0] ?? null
    const runnerUpConfidence = nextConfidences[1] ?? null
    const structurallyCertain = nextEligiblePosts.length === 1
+    const winningRunContinues =
+	nextWinningRunTargetId !== null
+	&& nextWinningRunStartAnswerCount !== null
+	&& nextEligiblePosts.length === 1
+	&& winningRunQuestionCount (
+	    nextAnswers,
+	    nextWinningRunStartAnswerCount) < winningRunQuestionLimit
    const statisticallyCertain =
 	topConfidence !== null
 	&& topConfidence.percent >= certainGuessPercent
@@ -1357,8 +1552,9 @@ const GekanatorPage: FC = () => {
 	&& (structurallyCertain || statisticallyCertain)
    const shouldGuess =
 	nextQuestionCount >= hardMaxQuestions
-	|| canGuessByQuestionCount
-	|| canGuessEarlyByConfidence
+	|| (
+	    !(winningRunContinues)
+	    && (canGuessByQuestionCount || canGuessEarlyByConfidence))
    if (shouldGuess)
      {
 	setActiveGuessId (nextGuess?.id ?? null)
@@ -1476,6 +1672,8 @@ const GekanatorPage: FC = () => {
 	new Map (
 	    [...recoveredCandidatePosts.entries ()].filter (
 		([postId]) => postId !== displayedGuess.id)))
+    setWinningRunTargetId (null)
+    setWinningRunStartAnswerCount (null)
    setActiveGuessId (null)
    setSearch ('')
    setSelectingCorrectPost (false)
@@ -1501,6 +1699,8 @@ const GekanatorPage: FC = () => {
    setRejectedPostIds (snapshot.rejectedPostIds)
    setLastGuessQuestionCount (snapshot.lastGuessQuestionCount)
    setLastRejectedGuessId (snapshot.lastRejectedGuessId)
+    setWinningRunTargetId (snapshot.winningRunTargetId)
+    setWinningRunStartAnswerCount (snapshot.winningRunStartAnswerCount)
    setActiveGuessId (snapshot.activeGuessId)
    setReviewGuessedPostId (snapshot.reviewGuessedPostId)
    setReviewCorrectPostId (snapshot.reviewCorrectPostId)
@@ -1525,20 +1725,54 @@ const GekanatorPage: FC = () => {
    setRecoveredCandidatePosts (recovered.recoveredCandidatePosts)
    setRecoveryStepCount (recovered.recoveryStepCount)
    setScores (recovered.scores)
+    const nextWinningRunTargetId =
+	recovered.eligiblePosts.length === 1
+	  ? recovered.eligiblePosts[0]?.id ?? null
+	  : null
+    const nextWinningRunStartAnswerCount =
+	nextWinningRunTargetId === null
+	  ? null
+	  : isWinningRunActive (winningRunTargetId, winningRunStartAnswerCount)
+	    && winningRunTargetId === nextWinningRunTargetId
+	    && winningRunStartAnswerCount !== null
+	      ? winningRunStartAnswerCount
+	      : answers.length
+    const nextWinningRunTargetPost =
+	nextWinningRunTargetId === null
+	  ? null
+	  : posts.find (post => post.id === nextWinningRunTargetId) ?? null

    const recoveredGuessablePosts =
 	recovered.eligiblePosts.length > 0
 	  ? recovered.eligiblePosts
 	  : availablePosts
-    const nextQuestion = chooseQuestion ({
-	posts: recovered.eligiblePosts.length > 1
-	    ? recovered.eligiblePosts
-	    : availablePosts,
-	questions: recovered.scoringQuestions,
-	scores: recovered.scores,
-	answers,
-	askedIds,
-	gameSeed })
+    const nextQuestion =
+	nextWinningRunTargetPost
+	&& nextWinningRunStartAnswerCount !== null
+	&& winningRunQuestionCount (
+	    answers,
+	    nextWinningRunStartAnswerCount) < winningRunQuestionLimit
+	  ? chooseWinningRunQuestion ({
+	      posts,
+	      fallbackPosts: availablePosts.length > 1 ? availablePosts : posts,
+	      questions: recovered.scoringQuestions,
+	      targetPost: nextWinningRunTargetPost,
+	      scores: recovered.scores,
+	      answers,
+	      askedIds,
+	      gameSeed })
+	  : chooseQuestion ({
+	      posts: recovered.eligiblePosts.length > 1
+		  ? recovered.eligiblePosts
+		  : availablePosts,
+	      questions: recovered.scoringQuestions,
+	      scores: recovered.scores,
+	      answers,
+	      askedIds,
+	      gameSeed })
+
+    setWinningRunTargetId (nextWinningRunTargetId)
+    setWinningRunStartAnswerCount (nextWinningRunStartAnswerCount)

    if (nextQuestion)
      {
@@ -1661,6 +1895,39 @@ const GekanatorPage: FC = () => {
      && !(error)
      && !(acceptedQuestionsError)

+  useEffect (() => {
+    if (
+	phase !== 'question'
+	|| isLoading
+	|| acceptedQuestionsLoading
+    )
+      return
+
+    const winningRunFinished =
+	winningRunTargetId !== null
+	&& winningRunStartAnswerCount !== null
+	&& winningRunQuestionCount (answers, winningRunStartAnswerCount) >= winningRunQuestionLimit
+	&& eligiblePosts.length === 1
+	&& eligiblePosts[0]?.id === winningRunTargetId
+    const nextGuess = displayedGuess ?? guess
+    if (currentQuestion || (!(winningRunFinished) && !(nextGuess)))
+      return
+
+    setActiveGuessId ((winningRunFinished ? guess : nextGuess)?.id ?? null)
+    setLastGuessQuestionCount (answers.length)
+    setPhase ('guess')
+  }, [
+      phase,
+      currentQuestion,
+      guess,
+      displayedGuess,
+      answers,
+      eligiblePosts,
+      winningRunTargetId,
+      winningRunStartAnswerCount,
+      isLoading,
+      acceptedQuestionsLoading])
+
  return (
      <MainArea className="bg-yellow-50 dark:bg-red-975">
 	<Helmet>
@@ -1767,24 +2034,6 @@ const GekanatorPage: FC = () => {
 		      </div>
 		    </div>)}

-		{!(isLoading) && phase === 'question' && !(currentQuestion) && (
-		    <div className="space-y-4">
-		      <p className="text-xl font-bold">
-			もう十分わかった。
-		      </p>
-		      <button
-			  type="button"
-			  className="rounded border border-yellow-300 px-4 py-2
-				     hover:bg-yellow-100 dark:border-red-700
-				     dark:hover:bg-red-900"
-			  onClick={() => {
-			    setActiveGuessId (guess?.id ?? null)
-			    setPhase ('guess')
-			  }}>
-			答える
-		      </button>
-		    </div>)}
-
 		{phase === 'guess' && displayedGuess && (
 		    <div className="space-y-4">
 		      <p className="text-xl font-bold">これを想像してゐたね?</p>